Canada’s forthcoming vehicle emissions standard (VES) will determine how quickly the country builds the charging network needed to support widespread electric vehicle (EV) adoption.
The federal government is expected to release draft VES regulations in Canada Gazette I shortly. The regulation replaces the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard (EVAS) and shifts Canada toward a system that regulates fleet-wide greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from vehicles. How strong those limits are will shape EV adoption, infrastructure investment and future emission reductions.
Automakers, utilities and charging companies make investment decisions years in advance. They need confidence that EV adoption will continue growing before committing capital to manufacturing, grid upgrades and charging networks. The strength of the VES will determine whether that confidence exists.
To better understand these outcomes, we modelled four VES scenarios for 2035: 74 g/mile, 62 g/mile, 40 g/mile and 30 g/mile. The modelling found that a 40 g/mile target represents the minimum level of stringency needed to align emissions reductions (45% below 2005 levels by 2035), EV uptake (75% EV sales by 2035) and the investment conditions needed to support large-scale electrification.
The transition to electric vehicles depends on two things – vehicle availability and charging infrastructure deployment. Consumers need confidence that switching to an EV will provide the same level of reliability and convenience they expect from conventional refuelling. That confidence becomes difficult to achieve without widespread, dependable charging infrastructure. Charging infrastructure economics also depend on predictable EV adoption. Developers need confidence that enough drivers will use public chargers to justify upfront investment, while utilities need visibility into future electricity demand to plan grid upgrades and system capacity.
The federal government has already invested more than $1 billion in public charging infrastructure, but long-term network expansion cannot rely primarily on public funding. Canada ultimately needs private capital to scales charging networks at the pace required for mass EV adoption. And private investors need confidence they will see sufficient utilization and returns. The sooner Canada reaches meaningful EV adoption levels the sooner we will see private investment replacing public dollars.
Research from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory shows that EV adoption rates are a strong predictor of charger use and charging network viability. As more drivers switch to EVs, charging stations become more economically viable because they are used more frequently. Under our modelling, the 40 g/mile scenario would result in EVs making up roughly 10% of Canada’s total light-duty vehicle fleet by 2030, reaching the utilization threshold generally needed to support financially viable public charging infrastructure.
From an infrastructure planning perspective, battery electric vehicles provide the clearest long-term demand signal because they rely entirely on charging networks and electricity demand. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles can play a transitional role, but their impact on charging demand is less predictable because it depends on how often drivers operate in electric versus gasoline mode. A strong VES target increases the share of fully electric vehicles on the road and provides clear long-term signals for infrastructure deployment.
Jurisdictions with stronger EV policies are demonstrating how regulatory certainty accelerates infrastructure investment. In British Columbia, where EV requirements have been in place longer, public charging deployment has expanded rapidly. A recent Paren State of the Industry report shows that British Columbia added more public charging ports in 2025 than any other province.
This buildout is also supporting employment across construction, electrical work, engineering, planning, and operations. British Columbia’s zero-emission vehicle sector now includes an estimated 384 companies, supports more than 8,000 full-time jobs and contributes roughly $920 million annually to provincial GDP.
A weak VES risks slowing EV adoption, undermining charging infrastructure investment and creating uncertainty across the electrification economy. By contrast, a strong 40 g/mile target would provide the long-term certainty needed to accelerate vehicle deployment, support charging infrastructure buildout and help Canada build a self-sustaining charging network driven increasingly by private investment.
Further reading
Charging infrastructure certainty is only one reason why stronger VES regulations are important. Our broader modelling also found that a 40 g/mile target by 2035 would:
- Increase the likelihood of achieving the federal government’s stated target of 75% EV sales by 2035
- Accelerate the availability of lower-cost EV models for Canadian consumers
- Move Canada closer to achieving its 2035 emission reduction goals
A full breakdown of the modelling is available in the Pembina Institute’s backgrounder, Getting the Vehicle Emissions Standard Right.
