Energy Future 2023 report charts inevitable global energy transformation Oil production will decline and clean electricity will boom as world tackles climate change

June 20, 2023


Photo: Blaise Van Malsen, NAIT Renewable Energy Program

CALGARY — CHRIS SEVERSON-BAKER, executive director of the Pembina Institute, made the following statement in response to the release of the Canada Energy Regulator report entitled Canada's Energy Future 2023: Energy Supply and Demand Projections to 2050:

“Energy Future 2023 aligns with what authoritative organizations like the International Energy Agency have published for years — that the global energy transition is underway and gaining momentum. The world — and Canada — are headed to net-zero. The questions that remain are about the pace of that transformation, and how prepared Canada is to take advantage of the opportunities in a net-zero economy. This net-zero modelling from the Canada Energy Regulator provides a roadmap for Canadians to navigate the pathway to net-zero.

“The Canada Energy Regulator (CER) shows that in a future with ambitious global climate action, global demand for fossil fuels falls steeply, reducing oil and natural gas prices and Canadian production of those commodities.

“Under the global net-zero scenario, oil production declines after 2026, dropping 76 per cent by 2050, challenging the economic viability of many Canadian producers. This matches analysis by the International Energy Agency.

“Under both of the CER’s net-zero scenarios, renewable energy becomes the backbone of Canada’s energy system and we achieve a net-zero grid by 2035. The CER's results align with the Pembina Institute's new work on Alberta's net-zero grid (to be released next week), which shows that decarbonizing the grid is affordable, economic and feasible.

“As the world moves toward a net-zero economy, Canada must work to secure a competitive place in global supply chains to position the country for economic prosperity and job growth. To meet our demand for low-carbon energy, hundreds of thousands of skilled workers will be needed between now and 2050 to power that economy. 

“The energy transformation outlined in this report demands proactive preparations on the part of responsible governments, federally and provincially, in order for Canada to remain competitive. Global trends like the rapid development of renewable energy and clean technology, as well as declining global demand for oil and gas, have significant impacts on Canada's energy transition. As the world — and our trading partners — move faster and further on climate action, Canada needs to invest in key clean technologies and renewable energy. But we also need strong policies implemented quickly, like the forthcoming Clean Electricity Regulations and oil and gas emissions cap, to provide certainty for investors.

“We congratulate the Canada Energy Regulator for advancing the conversation on how Canada can prosper during the ongoing global energy transition. We look forward to assessing the report and its assumptions in greater detail.”

Jan Gorski, director of Oil and Gas, and Binnu Jeyakumar, director of Electricity, are available for comment and to interpret the scenarios. 



Hanneke Brooymans
Senior Communications Lead, Pembina Institute 


Submission: Pembina Institute response on development of a net-zero scenario in the next Canada’s Energy Future report
Submission: Recommendations on the Canada Energy Regulator’s net-zero scenario
Fact Sheet: Economic benefits of a clean grid in Canada


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