Weakened industrial carbon price harms Canada’s economic future, abandons international commitments

Federal–Alberta deal continues string of major climate policy rollbacks, will slow low-carbon investment and job creation

The flags of Canada and Alberta

Photo: Roberta Franchuk, Pembina Institute

CALGARY — CHRIS SEVERSON-BAKER, Executive Director of the Pembina Institute, made the following statement in response to the latest news on the federal-Alberta energy MOU:

“The federal–Alberta energy MOU is a failure for Canada and Alberta both in the global clean energy economy, and in doing our share to tackle the climate crisis. The agreement to delay a meaningful price on Alberta’s industrial carbon emissions until 2040 will hurt Canadian jobs, undermine clean energy investment, and accelerate climate change. Our modelling indicates this delay will lead to an additional 230 megatonnes of greenhouse gas emissions over the next 15 years.

“Prime Minister Carney explicitly committed to strengthening industrial carbon pricing in November 2025. Instead, he has struck a deal with Premier Smith that will weaken that system from coast to coast to coast.

“Considering all that the federal government has offered to Alberta in lead-up to and during this negotiation — from the canceled oil and gas emissions cap and streamlined project impact assessments, to suspending clean electricity regulations and extended equivalency agreements on methane emissions, to considering rolling back coastal protection legislation — we were expecting, at the very least, an adequate industrial carbon price. All the federal government’s eggs were in this basket. Instead, a price of $130 per tonne by 2040 simply will not position the Alberta and Canadian economies for decarbonization and long-term competitiveness in an increasingly low-carbon global economy.

“Pushing the $130 price by 15 years means there will be no effective action to reduce oilsands emissions for a generation. This decision guarantees that oilsands emissions — which reached an all-time high in 2025 — will continue to rise year over year for at least another 15 years. This approach also risks opening the door for additional province-by-province weakening. While the goal was $130 by 2030, we’re left with a floor price of $110 by 2040.

“This price schedule is not strong enough to spur the necessary near-term private investment to reinvigorate the Pathways carbon capture project, which remains a pre-requisite for federal support of a new oil pipeline.”

Contact

Benjamin Alldritt 
Senior Communications Lead, Oil & Gas
780-328-1955 

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