A report released today by the Canadian Gas Association (CGA) and Canadian Electrical Association (CEA) suggests energy efficiency could reduce energy demand by 10% by 2025, meeting 56% of new energy demand growth in the process. The Pembina Institute says that this is only the tip of the iceberg, and that if best practices used in other countries are followed, much higher savings can be achieved.
The authors of the report used a computer simulation model to estimate the savings that might be achieved through a relative small number of energy efficiency policies. The Pembina Institute believes that this reflects an extremely conservative estimate of the potential to improve the energy efficiency and productivity of the Canadian economy.
"The report is a useful contribution to the on-going discussion of new policies, but many of the policies simulated such as upgrading building codes and standards are already being applied in Canada and other jurisdiction," says Roger Peters, a Senior Technical and Policy Analyst with the Pembina Institute and a member of a federal/provincial working group that reviewed the report. "British Columbia's building strategy is a good example. Its target dates for the energy efficiency of new homes and buildings are 10 years ahead of the assumptions made in the report. Many policy options used elsewhere such as innovative financing were not even considered"
"The study explores some of the potential for energy efficiency in Canada, but should not be treated as the last word on energy efficiency potential," noted Dr. Mark Winfield, Director of the Pembina Institute's Environmental Governance program. "It shows that failure to draw on the entire spectrum of policies will result in less of the potential being realized. The study therefore does not provide an estimate of what could be achieved through application of successful efficiency strategies being used in US states and in Europe where 20% or better reductions in energy demand through efficiency are expected over the same time period."
The Pembina Institute also notes that the findings of the study are substantially less than those of other recent modeling exercises looking at Ontario in detail, including work done for the Pembina Institute and the Ontario Power Authority
There are also certain technical limitations with the models used in the study, particularly their inability to deal with declines in the capital costs of efficient technologies over time, or structural changes in the economy (for example, decline in energy intense resource and manufacturing sectors in Ontario, and growth in less energy intense services and knowledge sectors) that may cause it to underestimate the potential efficiency gains.
Roger Peters concluded by stating that: "It is unfortunate that in the press release announcing publication of the report CGA and CEA chose to make efficiency sound so difficult to achieve and so limited in scope. This comes at a time when stakeholders at both the federal and provincial level are looking for more sustainable ways of meeting our growing demand for energy. The Pembina Institute and other non-governmental organizations are ready to help maximize the role of efficiency and renewable energy in all jurisdictions and have documented many ways that this can be done."
For more information contact:
Mark Winfield, Ph.D. Director Environmental Governance (Toronto)
Tel: 416-978-3486
Cell: 416-434-8130
E-mail: markw@pembina.org
Roger Peters, P.Eng.
Senior Technical and Policy Advisor (Ottawa)
Tel: 819-483-6288, ext 22
Email: rogerp@pembina.org
Matt Horne M.R.M. (Vancouver)
Project Analyst
Tel: 604-874-8558 ext 223
Email: matth@pembina.org