The supply mix advice delivered to the government of Ontario on December 9, 2005, by the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) is based on a flawed analysis and provides an inadequate basis for the Province's future electricity policies. This is the conclusion of a review of the OPA's advice and supporting documentation released by the Pembina Institute today. Key flaws in the OPA's advice identified by the Pembina Institute include:
- Overestimating Ontario's likely rate of electricity load growth from 2005 to 2025
- Grossly underestimating the potential for energy efficiency improvements to reduce demand for electricity
- Underestimating Ontario's renewable energy supply potential
- Underestimating the potential for cogeneration (combined heat and power plants) to assist in meeting Ontario's electricity needs
- Overstating the cost and supply risks associated with the use of natural gas for electricity generation
- Seriously underestimating the environmental and economic costs and risks of nuclear power
- Employing a fundamentally flawed methodology for assessing the environmental performance of supply options and an underlying analysis that contains significant gaps
"The OPA's supply mix advice is simply based on too many questionable assumptions to provide a sound basis for the future direction of Ontario's electricity system," said Dr. Mark Winfield, who led the Pembina Institute's evaluation of the OPA recommendations. Dr. Winfield added that "proceeding on the basis of the OPA's recommendations without further analysis and meaningful public debate would mean enormous economic, environmental and safety risks for generations of Ontarians."
The Pembina Institute notes that the OPA's study does make it clear that, with electricity supply secure until 2013, there is time for the rigorous and open assessment of Ontario's electricity options that is needed.
The Pembina Institute identifies two options for the conduct of a proper assessment of Ontario's electricity alternatives before irrevocable decisions are made:
1. A commission of inquiry following the model of Part II of the Walkerton Inquiry; or
2. A Joint Board hearing of the Ontario Energy Board and the Environmental Review Tribunal to fulfill the requirements of the Environmental Assessment Act and Electricity Act regarding the Integrated Electricity System Plan to be developed by the OPA.
In the meantime, the Pembina Institute emphasizes Ontario must proceed immediately with an aggressive energy efficiency and productivity strategy, and the continued rapid development of low-impact renewable energy sources. These "no regrets" policies are essential in the context of the province's lack of indigenous energy sources other than renewables and the need to improve Ontario's energy productivity.
Copies of the Pembina Institute's assessment of the OPA report are available here .
For more information contact:
Mark Winfield, PhD
Director, Environmental Governance
Tel: 416.978.5656
Cell: 416.434.8130
E-mail: markw@pembina.org