Modelling the Impact of the Climate Leadership Plan & Federal Carbon Price on B.C.’s EmissionsMethods and results of a greenhouse gas forecasting analysis

Publication - Dec. 5, 2016 - By Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, Pembina Institute, Clean Energy Canada

In August 2016, the government of British Columbia released its Climate Leadership Plan (CLP). That plan was announced as the first step in a series of actions British Columbia (B.C.) would be taking to meet the province’s legislated 2050 emissions reduction target of 80% below 2007 levels.

This report presents the method and results of an analysis that forecasts the impact of B.C.'s CLP on provincial greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the present (2016) to 2050. The model covers all provincial GHG emissions, except those resulting from human-induced changes to forest carbon.

The results show that with the implementation of all policies described in the CLP and the recently announced federal carbon price floor (50 $/tCO2e by 2022), B.C.'s emissions will be above the 2050 target as well as the 2020 target (33% below 2007 levels). By providing a breakdown of the remaining emissions by sector, this analysis can help identify what additional GHG reduction policies are required to achieve these targets.

Navius Research prepared Modelling the Impact of the Climate Leadership Plan & Federal Carbon Price on British Columbia’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions for the Pacific Institute for Climate Solutions, Pembina Institute, and Clean Energy Canada.

* The green line (reference case) shows projected carbon pollution before accounting for the policies in the Climate Leadership Plan and the federal carbon price schedule. The blue line (B.C. climate plan & federal carbon price) shows projected carbon pollution with those policies included. Chart: PICS/Pembina Institute/CEC

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