TORONTO – Electric vehicles can help Canadians spend less on fuel, breathe cleaner air and access new jobs in the auto and clean transportation sector — while keeping Canada competitive on the global stage. But without strong vehicle emissions limits, the switch to EVs could slow, keeping drivers stuck with higher costs, more pollution and fewer opportunities for economic growth, and a Canadian auto sector falling behind important trading partners.
As the federal government replaces the Electric Vehicle Availability Standard (EVAS) with a proposed vehicle emissions standard (VES), new analysis from the Pembina Institute finds that Canada will need a vehicle emissions limit of 40 grams of CO2 equivalent per mile (g/mile) by 2035 to confidently reach its target of 75% electric vehicle sales.
The consequence of setting a standard at a weaker (higher) level would significantly increase the risk of missing both EV adoption and climate targets. Compared with the original EVAS, a weaker approach (e.g. Canada’s proposed target of 74 g/mile) could result in 62 megatonnes fewer cumulative emissions reductions by 2035, representing more than $18 billion in additional social costs from greenhouse gas emissions.
Modelling indicates that:
- 40 g/mile or lower by 2035 is needed to reach the 75% EV sales goal with high confidence
- 62 g/mile by 2035 provides only a reasonable chance of approaching the 75% EV target
- 30 g/mile or lower would be required to fully align the vehicle sector with Canada’s climate targets and the broader global shift to EVs
Early signals suggest the federal government’s proposed vehicle emissions standard could be weaker than these levels.
While emissions standards give automakers more flexibility than the EVAS in how they comply, weaker targets reduce the market signal needed to scale EV adoption and delay the transition to a fully electric fleet.
Stronger Canadian standards better align with emerging international benchmarks, including proposals in the European Union (EU), which are moving toward significantly deeper fleet emission reductions. If Canada were to align with the EU targets, standards would need to fall to roughly 26 g/mile.
Read the Pembina Institute backgrounder Getting the Vehicle Emissions Standard Right.
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Quotes
“If Canada wants a realistic pathway to 75% EV sales and a leadership role in the global auto marketplace, emissions standards need to be set at 40 g/mile or lower by 2035. Anything weaker (higher) increases the risk of missing both EV and climate targets.”
— Chandan Bhardwaj, Senior Analyst, Transportation, Pembina Institute
“Replacing EVAS with weaker standards puts Canada in the backseat on both economic and climate fronts, at a time when Canada should be behind the wheel. The final emissions limits will determine whether this policy accelerates the transition to EVs or slows it down. Getting the stringency right means lower emissions, lower long-term social costs from tailpipe pollution, and a leadership role in the global transition to EVs.”
— Adam Thorn, Director, Clean Growth, Pembina Institute
Contact
Lejla Latifovic
Senior Communications Lead, Pembina Institute
819-639-4185
Background
Backgrounder: Getting the Vehicle Emissions Standard Right
Media Release: Canada’s EV strategy shows progress; need for faster, stronger regulation persists
Blog: Diversified EV sector best way to protect Canadian workers
