Down to the Wire in Copenhagen

I'm writing this at 6:30pm Copenhagen time on Thursday, December 17. If the talks end on schedule — not a very likely prospect — then we will know the outcome by this time tomorrow.

It's been a tense, and intense, last few days. The negotiations have been happening around the clock, and over 100 world leaders are now converging on Copenhagen for the finale of this summit.

I've been to G8 meetings before, and sometimes it looks like leaders arrive there with a deal all-but-finished before the official talks even start. Copenhagen is exactly the opposite. None of the presidents and prime ministers can show up here merely for a photo op, because as of right now, there is no deal to sign. These are very volatile talks, and I truly believe that any outcome — from a deal that lays the foundation for success to a total collapse — is still possible.

I've done several media interviews about Canada's role here, and about what Prime Minister Harper has to bring to these talks. Earlier this week, I was also asked to make a short speech from the Climate Action Network to the Kyoto Protocol negotiations. Given Canada's Kyoto track record, the group wanted a Canadian to speak for all of us about the need to raise the level of ambition.

LISTEN IN: Clare Demerse discusses her expectations for the conclusion of Copenhagen with the CBC's Kathleen Petty on Ottawa Morning (Dec. 17, 2009)

VIDEO: Clare Demerse speaks on behalf of Climate Action Network about the need to increase ambitions at the UN Climate Summit. (Can't see the video? Click here to watch Clare's speech, starting from the 14-minute mark.)

The summit organizers have decided to cut off access to the Bella Centre while the political leaders are in town, so I'm doing my best to follow the talks from my hotel room. (A select few of my colleagues are still inside, and the rest of us are doing everything we can to help them.)

Watching the endgame from outside just makes it even more suspenseful: there is so much riding on the next few hours, and so little that observers like us can do now to get the outcome we need.

Here and at home, Canadians have been extremely clear about the kind of leadership we expect from our government in Copenhagen. Now we have to wait and see whether Prime Minister Harper delivers.